Collier County's Property Values Fell 3.2% — Not 6%. And a Real Estate Analyst Says the Rebound Is Already Underway

When Collier County released its preliminary property value estimates in June, the headline was alarming: market values fell nearly 6%. NNN covered that number — and noted that preliminary estimates are exactly that, preliminary.

The final numbers are in. They tell a better story.

The completed July 1 tax roll submitted to the Florida Department of Revenue shows countywide market values fell 3.23% to approximately $217.7 billion — meaningfully better than the initial 5.8% estimate released in June. The updated values are based on a full analysis of qualified sales, market conditions, and property characteristics as of January 1, reflecting a more complete and accurate picture of what the local real estate market actually did.

Property Appraiser Vickie Downs declined to comment on the updated figures.

Countywide market values: Down 3.23% to $217.7 billion
Countywide taxable values: Up 3.35% to $166.8 billion

By city — market value changes:

Taxable value increases by city:

New construction drove the taxable value increases — adding more than $3.23 billion in market value countywide, including $822 million in Naples and $290 million on Marco Island. Taxable values rise even when market values fall because new construction adds to the roll and because Florida's Save Our Homes cap continues pushing homesteaded values upward regardless of market direction.

Matt Simmons, managing partner at Maxwell, Hendry & Simmons LLC — one of the most respected real estate appraisal firms in Southwest Florida — reviewed the updated numbers and described them as more in line with actual market conditions than the preliminary estimates suggested.

More importantly, Simmons pointed to price data that wasn't in the tax roll at all: the trajectory of actual closed sale prices over the past several months.

From March 2025 through March 2026, Collier County experienced negative year-over-year price changes every single month. That streak has now ended. Prices have increased year-over-year for three consecutive months, with increases ranging from 3.3% to 8.2%. Simmons expects that trend to continue through the rest of 2026 and to show up clearly in next year's tax roll numbers.

On new construction specifically, Simmons made a point worth understanding. The county saw its lowest amount of new construction value added since 2022 — and he described that as a healthy signal rather than a warning. The construction activity hitting the market now reflects decisions made two to four years ago when the market was extremely hot. The fact that the pipeline hasn't overloaded the market with excess supply is a sign that Collier County avoided the overbuilding pattern that has hurt other Florida markets.

He also highlighted something specific to Naples and Marco Island: both cities experienced their highest two consecutive years of new construction in 2024 and 2025. That activity is spot-lot building and intentional infill — not large master-planned sprawl — which he described as the right kind of growth.

The market value number that fell 3.23% is not what determines your property tax bill. Taxable value does — and taxable value rose 3.35% countywide.

TRIM notices — Truth in Millage — go out in August. Those notices will show your individual assessed value, your exemptions, and the proposed millage rates from each local taxing authority. Your actual tax bill won't be final until the county commission, school board, and municipalities adopt their budgets and set millage rates. Tax bills are mailed November 1.

One important reminder from the November ballot: if Florida voters approve the constitutional amendment to expand the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $250,000, it does not affect this year's taxes. Any change from that amendment takes effect January 1, 2027 at the earliest.

Watch for your TRIM notice in August. That is the number that actually matters.

For the full picture of what Naples real estate is doing right now — pending sales, median prices, inventory levels — see NNN's NABOR® June Market Report published this week.

All figures sourced from the Collier County Property Appraiser's July 1, 2026 final tax roll submission and Naples Daily News reporting by Laura Layden. Analyst commentary from Maxwell, Hendry & Simmons LLC.